Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other tainted figures

Someone just asked me a few days back what the GDP of The Gambia was? And I wondered while responding that it was in the range of 800-900 Million US $. And the rhetorical question was immediately how that compared to that of India... And my mind wandered further. Do we include the Rs. 25,000 Crore (6.25 Billion USD) 2 G scam, the 20-50,000 Crore (6-12 Billion USD) Reddy brothers mining scam... Or the fodder scams or the land scams.... And suddenly these figures don't make any sense any more. Don't make any sense as to the ignorant rest of the world wondering what Lakhs and Crores are.(to the newly inducted into Indian economic figures, a Lakh is a 100,000 but with the separator positioned like this: 1,00,000. A hundred lakhs makes a Crore with the separator positioned like this: 1,00,00,000!!! That's why we are a special country. You will often hear of figures and aspirations. People aspire to be Lakhpatis or Crorepathis! ( do note that you may hear of Corrode-pathis too , but that has only to do with regional pronounciations... Nothing to indicate the deep rooted corrosiveness of our corrupt society!!

I recently set out to buy a house in India and found that the best bet was to drive 70 KM out of Chennai and look at a property just beyond the famed IT Corridoor. 8 lane highway on the OMR ( Old Mahabalipuram Road - an old highway, leading to the historical town of Mamallapuram ) ... the advertisements of this super highway painted a pictue of a Dubai like modern city. As we reached the TOLL booth to enter this famed highway, I realised that neither was the Toll booth like anything I have seen in lesser developed nations than India. And more horrifying was the drive on this toll highway... Traffic was a mayhem. Potholes everywhere. This could have been Mount road or Rangaswami Street in T Nagar. Cattle, cycles, pedestrians, overloaded autos, three-on-a-bike for two wheelers was the norm and of course honking was the icing on the cake. Worse was the filth on the sides of the roads. Plastic bags, bottles, litter, people defacating anywhere.. And one wondered: is this the India Shining story.

Realisation then gradually strikes you (despite the cacophony of the traffic, my thoughts are enlightened) : Despite our politicians, despite the corruption and they mayhem, despite our overflowing population, despite everything negative, we are able to show a substantial growth in our economy. Imagine our GDP if we were able to get rid of these politicians and the corruption that goes with them.

Indias figures could soar if we put an end to the corruption. But how does one do it. An Anna Hazare started it only to be hogged out of the lime light by a hoard of self-heat-seeking-missiles like politicos, yogis, activists and socialites.

A twitterer responded to one of my twits : suggesting that change had to start within. And arm-chair activists would not be of any use she added. But then if I am willing to change myself and am able to convince another arm chair activist to straighten our own figures, how long would it take for change on a nationwide scale.

May be a few hundred years. Or will we have to refer to years in lakhs and crores too, before we see some sense in our figures - GDP or otherwise.

The Gambia
February 2012
In bed feeling Sick ... Partly due to a little bug and of course Also due to political irritants.
P.S. The world bank suggests that the GDP of India is "environ" 17.3 Trillion US$ ... Or should I say about 7,00,00,00,000 Crore Rupees. ( I may have missed out a few zeroes ..but guess that doesn't matter. As Birbal ( the witty jester and advisor in the court of the Mughal emperor Akbar, once retorted when asked about the number of Crows in the capital. He came back with a figure of 1,34,54,787 crows. When asked to prove it, he smiled and replied, Emperor, please get your Ministers to count them and disprove me. If there are lesser, they may have gone to visit relatives and if it exceeds my figure, they may have relatives visiting them. In our case of the exact GDP a few scams more or less.....

A Hazar Anna Hazares

I often wonder how many of us had heard of Anna Hazare over 6 months ago? ( I can of course practically see those intellects stand up, saying that they knew of this Gandhian from Ralegan Siddhi - in typical 'Silencer' ( the fourth and only idiot in the now famous Three Idiots) fashion!! Well I hadn't heard of him. The first mental visual when I heard the name, was that of a blonde spouse of a Cricketing hero. This is typical of the current mental state I am in. I've been trying to practice thinking 'out of the box', that the thought process starts with the most bizarre, furthest out of the box thoughts. Others laugh. I've got used to me. Thus, once convinced that Anna Hazare was indeed a Gandhian, following principles of Non-violence, making a serious effort to fight corruption, my mindset about the person changed. only to be rudely shaken back, into a box, when lo-and-behold, there stood alongside him, the usual suspects - politicos in orange garbs, tantrics wielding political microphonic megaphones, and of course with some brilliant actors too. ( I refer not to the presence of Aamir Khan, whom I genuinely admire, but to the theatrical skills of former employees of TATA Steel and the Indian Police Force, respectively (without respect!) The antics and drama, brought to the forefront of a genuine fight against corruption, have made this make Anna or Team Anna look terribly monologued! They look like the "Lagaan" cricket team at practice. All running like headless chicken! Making mockery of a genuine Indian concern! A Billion people, plagued by corruption, yet living with it in as though in a marriage (An Indian Marriage at that!! No morally acceptable separation)! I read this in a friends comment on the same subject. You realise that a vast majority of us who have just heard of Anna Hazare, feel some sort of empathy. Millions of us. Yet we seem impotent in being able to effectively do something about it. The standard rhetoric is - If you want to do something about It then cast your vote! Or Join Politics. UGH. Well, until we start Overseas NRI voting for the first option. The second option - not an easy one for many of us who don't play games! The first one is a one time option for a full term and thus makes no sense! It would take a tremendous effort to make any change during the tenure. And that's where the problem with our democracy lies. The incumbent politician rakes in the most he can till the next election. The Hazar Hazares will scream and shout, go on hunger strikes. Can they make a difference? Will they be able to reduce corruption? Or are they going to replace an entrenched corrupt system with another one? The more one sees the hanger ons and the dramatists alongside, the less the Hazar Hazares will be seen behind the real Hazare. Nairobi, Enjoying the wonderful climate ...from Indoors!! October, 17th, Wednesday, 2011

Teachers Day

A little note to my schoolmates from KV Tamabaram , from a discussion on Good and Bad Teachers

My two bits on Teachers (in bytes)

Both my parents have been teachers ever since I knew them!!

Thus had the fortune to be "taught" both at home as well as School.

Dad was a Professor of English, and thus in a silent way, nurtured my aptitude for word play and Limericks especially. He let us learn rather than taught us. Mum, on the other hand, was a nursery teacher. She was loved by her children immensely and took nurturing children to a great extent. The flexibility she exhibited at school transformed into firmness at home. She was the one we were a little scared of at home. The verbal ruler she used , and sometimes the physical one, taught us about discipline, and more importantly, we discovered (learnt/innovated) of methods on how to evade detection whenever we indulged, lets say, in behaviour that attracted admonishing!

Thus, between Dad and Mum at home, we learnt a lot about life.

Dad taught us some morals. For Example, one that always remains firmly implanted, is when I was suspected of smoking ( I say suspected purely due to the fact that while everyone knew that I was smoking, I imagined that the strong overpowering flavour of Minty and Supari, could easily camouflage the "mild" fragrance of cigarettes). His stern advice was " if you want to smoke, use your own hard earned money, not mine. " . Mum of course was far more vocal and a little physical.
When I moved out of KV Tambaram, there was an option to join Vanavani (ICSE) or KVIIT. The problem was that Dad was principal at Vanavani..... It took my Dad to understand my plight. A Princis son!!!! Get badgered by your opponents and friends. Do well and it's because you're Princis son. Do bad, and you're the blacksheep of the family. Do nothing and yet be ostracised by friends who want to make Princi or other jokes!! So I studied at KV IIT, escaping the direct wrath of teachers and classmates. Yet our Princi (M T Sreenivasa Iyengar, respectfully shortened to MT) wouldn't hesitate to call up Dad on occasions of minor mis-demeanours.

Life has been tough I would say , but I'd do anything to go back and re-live those stressful moments of school life. I remember the whacking, thrashing that our Sanskrit Panditji gave me for having thought he heard me call him by the local name of the " kudumi"(a short ponytail on an otherwise shaven head, most often on the head of a pundit!!). It wasn't me !! But I got a thrashing of my life, that Drove what few shlokas I did have within, out! He later apologised when Thomas Abraham, very gallantly went to him later, privately, and owned to having used the offending synonym. Thomas got brownie points from all for being honest. I live on with a mental block that's has anything to do with the language of the Gods!!

Thus on Teachers day, I'd like to thank my teachers for putting in and taking out various pieces of a puzzle in me. Is the picture complete? I don't think so.

Cheers
Ram
PS I am a strong believer that character building starts at home and can only be moulded in School. The stronger the clay, the better the pot. The hands that mould can determine the shape, but not the strength.

The Baba Blacksheep of India

While I do know that public mention of a few names/celebrities in my blog may be cause for controversy, I presume that their being public figures entitles us to discus them on a public platform, without prejudice!!

THE BABA BLACKSHEEP OF INDIA

Hear the 'pre-fix' Baba, and instead of imagining a respectful elder preaching good behaviour and peace, we see the likes of power, sex and money hungry bearded saffron clad men using gullible followers to attain nirvanic heights of power, wealth, and possibly ecstacy.

How stupid can we get? We imagine that the likes of a Baba Ramdev or a Sri Sri whatever, or for that matter,even the erstwhile Sai, Maharshi Yogi or Rajneesh - purpotedly to be men of high spiritual intellect and moral benevolence!!  We have become so gullible that we dont look beyond those haunting voices or eyes (eye in Ramdevs case).  Mass hypnotism using Yoga and Spiritualism! Twisting words and advice into shapes that any Yogic Asana would be proud of - they never falter to deceive.

They have their mass following that gets them their revenue.  And then they have the creme de la creme - the Powerful, unscrupulous and corrupt political endorsements.

Religion and Spiritualism have been the best businesses ever. Tax free, Salary free and low investment high return businesses - and mass appeal and following. That is where the similarity with the nursery rhyme begins - Baa Baa Black Sheep refers to a herd - the Babas too have herds. Yes Sir Yes Sir Enough of WOOL to pull over your eyes!!

I stuck a morphed picture (Not taken by me and neither morphed by me) of Anna Hazare (Wh is ANNA Hazare) and Ramdev - morphed into Jai & Veerus famous Yeh Dosti Motorbike picture - signifying the friendship of cause that they both partnered recently - purportedly to fight corruption in Governemnt. I received flak from supporters of Anna and some of the Baa Ba Ba and more - form a friend considering the Congress party being more corrupt than the BJP , and found the arguments worthy of argument.

Anna and Ramdev - Each one promising to fast unto death until corruption in Government died. Sounds funny - but Corrution in Social work and Spiritualism giving their life up to terminate Corruption in Government! Will we see the day when some of our Politicians threated to give up their lives fasting until the Swamis and Babas of the world relinquish corruption and mass duping?

All birds of the same feather and sheep of the same wool!!

Baa Baa
Ram
We, will follow idiotic politicians in Saffron, follow a Sushmita dancing as though in a trance, an Advani preending he is on Arjuns charriot - Accept the disruption caused in Parliament over non-issues - Let a silly saffron clad terrorist to the nation hold us to ransom. 

Where have gone their yogic powers. They too die of common mans illnesses, are kept alive on instuments like ventilators (an instrument of God?).  They will die too inspite of all divine and yogic interventions, But then so will all of us. But were not the ones claiming invincibility and divinity!!!

Bissau Diary - May 2011 - A Bike, Good Food, Brazilians, Music and Nuts

Welcome to Bissau
(Bemvindo na Bissau)

The Central Place(Praca) - Eneida Marta Live

I have always loved being in Guinea Bissau.  Despite the pitiable city roads and poor infrastructure - it is a city that is bustling. One wonders what all the activity is about. Yet the market is bustling, the traffic is never light.  Well dressed and fashion conscious girls thronging the market place. The many Bars are full and loud. The good but few Restaurants are relatively expensive, and yet full and lively.

Weekends in Bissau are inevitably fun - but that doesnt mean to say that week days aren't. A great meal with Super Bock or Caipirinhas or some simple yet nice portuguese wines in the company of a few business friends.... Business is soon forgotten. The discussion is always about the food, women, politics and life in Bissau.

Off late I've procured a motorcycle in Bissau.  The book 'Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance' beckons me to read it once again, from cover to cover. The only recollection I have of the cult book is the reason for the authors love for bikes -  being the true contact with air from the places you pass. You get to interract one-on-one with the environments of neighbourhoods that you pass by. Unlike the car - where you are boxed in - protected and yet alienated from the real world.

Twist the throttle and my 160 cc Apache is away.



 TVS RTR 160 Apache
My Bissau 'HORSE'
Is a well know brand in Bissau

In my few years in Bissau, I have possibly eaten some of my best meals of my life, in this country.(I quickly must add at risk of being thrown out of home, Jamila's cooking still is honestly the best - here I refer to eating out.)   My first thought of eating on a weekend, and thoughts move to savouring the crude and labourious, yet rustic and delicious 'Ostras'.  'Ha Ostras' - the signboard says - informs us that river Oysters are available  (But that could possibly have been the case at the time the sign board was written.).  Thus a follow up enquiry is made which results in the gleeful affirmative response - that they indeed do have them.  River Oysters grilled over a wood fired open smoky grill - with 'Malageta com Limao'. Any Malayalee (from Kerala /India) or a Tamilian would know Malageta - a derived word or a genuine similarity - we have no idea - Ground Green chillies with Lemon. Oyster splitting knives , a little towel, A dustbin (or a simple carboard box) and the instant the 'prato' or huge bowl of Steaming grilled Oysters are put on your plate - we get to work - ensuring that not one of the few hiding oysters are missed. The constant clatter of empty oyster shells dropping into the waste bins and the constant tabla like hammering on Oysters by each 'speculator', as though were mining and looking for gold, with the din of the chatter around the table - makes this a very memorable outing in Bissau. You could ride the scenic well paved 50 kilometres to Mar Azul just past Quinhamel, enjoying the beautiful settings of the river or drive down to Prabis and sit under a tree and enjoy this un delicate delicacy.  Certainly not for the weak stomached and neither for hygiene concerned tourists. But for the adventurous, an experience of a life time.

Two weeks ago we rode to Quinhamel  and wasted 'quatro pratos' of Ostras at Quinhamel. Accompanied by our Brazilian friends, Ary and Orion ( duly chrstened Ari NAIR and Ori NAIR - the long accepted surname for any quality inspector of Cashew) and we were joined by Portuguese friend Lolita and the loud but funny Marcus Petrovski Bragga - a Portuguese with a strong devised Russian accent.  My riding partner Kaushik on his horse too. Two bikes and two cars. A wild ride back with the NAIRs taking turns at riding the bike. We rode back in a hurry to watch the finals of the Brazilian Football league - Corinthia versus a name I cant remember - at the Adega de Loueriro, one of Bissaus best Restaurants if I may say.  Small, yet rustique.  Simple terracotta decor, and slow yet charming service.  A friendly place owned by Miguel and his mother and Brother Hugo. Excellent grills and portuguese rice with 'feijao' (beans).  The portions are huge. Sleepy portions we call them. Food so good that you cant stop and when you stop you cant get up!! The Adega is always full as was on this occassion. Full with many Brazilians - both males and females.  The NAIRS had invited two very charming Brazilian friends to watch the match together with them.  Very soon one of them was being hit hard on by Petrovski, the Portuguese maverick!! An instant dislike of two nationalities speaking the same language - fills the air! But that is a private moment and shall not let it tamper with this blog!

Many days have passed and our Brazilain friends have got closer.  Theyve visited Bissaus famous 'Ilhas' - the amazing archipelago of a number of islands. Bubaque and Rubane are already unforgetable places to vist.  We're already planning an overnight boat trip ..if of course 'yours faithfully' can organise a boat!!

Stangely enough, my good friend John 'Tiger' missed the rendezvous' and finally got to meet the Brazillians just last week. Am sure he regrets not having accepted invitations earlier.

I've learnt a lot about Brazil in the last few weeks.  Family life in Brazil seems similar to India. Work seems to take Brazilians away from their families.  The Brazilain economic boom is apparently evident in Sao Paolo alone. Yet they are a fun loving and very friendly people wanting for a chance to laugh. They spend hours calling families at home. The emotions are private.

The Brazilians are here in Bissau for various reasons. Ari and Ori Nair are now joined by Ricardo and Napoleon (We have christned them PILLAIs). They represent Brazils largest and probably the worlds largest processor of Cashew. Iracema is the single largest automated processor of Raw Cashews. The Nairs and Pillais are here to ship out thousands of tons of RCN(as Raw Cashews Nuts are commonly referred to). On the other hand, the  other Brazilians Leia, Maria Fernanda, Andrea, Jaqueline, Sincha, Ricardo etc are all here on a Brazilain Government Social Work Programme to build a school.  The Cashew Buyers and the Social Workers have hit it off wonderfully. 

But the Brazilains are not here to just buy the Cashew Nuts in any form.  Representing a nation that has very stringent phyto sanitary laws, they have taken Cashew buying to a new level.  Open jawed Indian buyers are aghast that any exporter from Guinea Bissau will actually take the trouble to sieve every bag of Cashew to remove vegetative foreign matter.  And thats not all. All sieved clean cashew, must then be bagged in 60Kgs bags. Last year when we worked with George Chen and Glorias Chinese / Moroccan / Portuguese /Indian team on Cashew - we thought that was unique.  This year has been uniquer (if one may use the word).

Ary Nair and I seem to have hit it off very well.  We both like design and machines and thus our Cashew sieving project is moving ahead because of our warped mechanical minds.  We both like Music Video and Food too.  Both are kind of reserved enough to not exploit the female phermones that fill the air - though the desire is evidently there!! Jealousy looms a weighty veil as the more bohemian Brazilians and Portuguese corner the seemingly RWA Brazilians.  Public yet reserved evenings are now spent with the group at discotheques in the evening listening to lilting soulful Bissau Guinean or Cuban music.. And speaking of Music, lifts my spirits - as last night - I have had one of the best musical evenings of my life.  A live show by one of Bissaus own - at the Imperio Praca - the central park.  A show that was washed away the previous evening with the first rains in Bissau.  Eneida Marta singing her Bissau Guinean soul to a packed central park - in the foreground of the old dilapilated Presidential palace. 8 Brazilians and One Indian, and scores of other residents of Bissau enjoyed some very original and lilting yet thumping music in the honour of Wives of Bissau.

The Bike, The Good Food, The Music among others - raise a tempting voice  - 'Come Back to Bissau' it says.  The Simplicity of it all is very powerful. And I think - the More simple it sounds, the more complicated it will get.

Ram

Luanda, Casa de A Lopes, Bissau

FRIENDS

FRIENDS - the proverbial serial on Television - Everyones favourite - On how a group of youngsters share accomodation and many other things in their lives - And as you watch each episode - you look at the humour of their friendship - each episode is actually about the mis-trust, the jealousy, the trials and tribulations of their  daily life together.

Doesn't it astound you - that though they are "friends" - they have nothing but problems between them.

And is this what it is in real life too?

Each of us have had many friendships in life. Some like cement, have weathered the years and we take if for granted that the bonding will remain. But the closer you examine these long weathering friendships, they are enduring time because the sense of closeness has never trespassed inner boundaries. They have never taken the friendship for granted. That too is a Catch 22. Onlty the closest of friends can take liberties, but the moment you take liberties, the closeness goes.  The solution is probably to give liberties and not take them?

When I look at my life, I can list the number of friends with whom I can take liberties. Yet even in those friendships, if I did cross a certain line, am sure that would be the end of the closeness of that friendship.

Keeping one's friends means respecting their boundaries and not yours. And if we cannot do this then the freindship was not destined to endure.

Being a friend does not mean just being together at every juncture and sitting at the same table and spending every evening together. It means that you can count on someone when you need. And if either friend is unable to express himself or his or her difficulty - then the friendship is superficial. It does not mean that the friendship does not exist. But it means that it was a friendship of convenience - which in itself is not bad. In fact the serial 'Friends' is exactly that. More contrived out of convenience rather than the kind of live long friendship that we are possibly looking for.

Losing a friendship is worse. Its always easy creating a divide. Getting together is the tough part. And when egoes get in the way then its never easy to make up.

We've lost some friends along the way - some you regret and some you don't. I've found it very strange that the closer the friends were, the more aggressive and violent the separation. Extreme sentiments either way - in the bonding as well as in the breaking.

Thinking back - given a choice - I'd rather have mellow friendships of the convenient kind as well as of the bonding kind - but certainly without the 'Yeh Dosti'* kind of extreme bonding.

Extreme bonding needs extreme sacrifice - and the CATCH 22 is that it could mean sacrificing the friendship to maintain it!!

Ram
Banjul in an extremely pensive mood
* "Yeh Dosti" - Hindi - Means "This Friendship" referring to an extreme friendship - Is a Popular Film Song from a film"Sholay" about two robin hood like crooks who are very close friends - willing to sacrifice virtually anything  - even their lives - for the friend.

Quite a few 'friends' who follow my blog have called me asking "Why this suddenly emotional outburst on friendship?"  "Have you been hurt?" And the answer is Ofcourse. Every expression of emotion is triggered. Who the trigger and what the trigger is not important.  As we learn our lessons in life, we emote - leaving trails as we move on.  But the deeper I think of it, the more Im convinced that the problem as well as its solution lies within me!

The Crooked Cashewnut

I guess I must give credit for the title and subject of this blog to my dear friend Krishnan, who has never deviated in his reference to this wonder crop and its trade.

The Cashew Nut and its Kernel within has a crooked shape, and thus it's business too is never straight. We know that he doesn't mean that it is a 'crooked' or shady business, but that simple and straighforward business rules never seem to apply.  Market trends of this crop show little or no logic.

The African Cashew value chain moves from within Africa to India to the Consuming markets in the US & Europe.

In brief the chain consists of :-

- Plantation / Farmers ( be it wild, public orchards or organized private plantations),
- Traders ( Could be either plastic mug traders, bicycle traders, donkey cart traders, gele-gele* traders, pick-up traders, truck traders or warehouse traders - basically referring to the size of their trading capacity) 
- Exporters ( the serious ones in the trade,  year after year, or those profit searching - fly by night operators looking for a quck buck, or the pure currency champions - looking for export currency earning to balance their import exchange rates)
- Processors -Either Local or International, Either the mug/backyard processor or the non conventional bag by bag processor or the industiral - small, medium to large processor)
- Distributors/Marketeers & Consumers ( of the finished product)

Each one of the above - deals with this crooked nut - with not much of an idea of what actually influences prices of the raw material or the finished products.

The parameters that dictate raw material prices could be varied and most often external factors

Prices and Availability of Raw Material in India - This is a distant 'GOD' like parameter.  This parameter is always there, around you - can't see it, cant touch it - but if affects you. Traders and Brokers of the raw material call to say that India is short or long (not referring to anyones height for sure - but whether the raw material will be enough in India or not). If India is short, prices could go up or down and if India is Long, prices could go up or down!

The Weather in India, East Africa, West Africa or in Asia. A good monsoon in some places means a good crop( Prices could go up), but could also mean poor drying and thus poor quality (Prices could go Down).

Ivory Coast : No ivory trade here but IVC has just become the single largest hyper market for raw nuts.  400,000MT in one single country. Thus turbulence (not the flying kind) can affect markets. If IVC has tremors (not the Earthshaking type), buyers rush to Guinea Bissau, Senegal and The Gambia (since we're the next stop for the Raw material buying train (explained later).  Thus IVC with its low outturn, wet crop plays king-pin in determining prices in the last stop before Tanzania.

Diwali, Christmas & New Year : Festival time is when people want to eat Cashews.  Thus October/November in India and December in the US is when everyone wants their kernels for the sweets and Cakes.  Raw material availability well in advance to meet these festival requirements plays a role.  If a processor is short he pays more. If he is long, he pays less!!!

Vietnam : the fastest growing and most innovative processing nation. Vietnam buys and India cries. Indian processors have never in the past been challenged when sourcing raw nuts is concerned - never, until Vietnam pushed its way into making it a success story. If vietnamese buy, markets change. When they sell - markets change. When they default (which is what they're getting to do quite well and thus makes them virtual jokers in this crooked nut game) - markets change.  And none of this is visible to the ordinary trader. Boom - a market surge or collapse hits you before you can figure out how the Vietnamese say Ni-hao!!

The Gulf & Afghanistan Wars : When the US and Europe get into hard fought battles, whether or not they provide weary battle hardened warriors with Almonds, Pistachios or Cashewnuts - affects the kernel industry and thus the raw material trade as well.  However the problem is that raw material trade has happened about 60-90 days before those kernels are sold and thus one has no control over price at that moment. Whe the US goes to war, it would help if they let the raw cashew traders know a few months in advance - whether they would continue to buy kernels as nutrition for troops!

The US Economy and Recession : This has done funny things to the crooked nut.  While the US dropped purchases durng the recession, they actually bought more cashew kernels because prices dropped becasue of the recession - and since they bought more, prices went up . And since there was a recession, prices went down.  and so on and so forth.  If Alan Greenspan had been a little less liberal, we could have had a square cashew kernel and not a curved crooked one.

The Indian Marriage and Childrens Act : should have stipulated the quantity of Caju kathili (a diamond shaped sweet made purely from Cashew butter and sugar) each marriage  and birth of a child was entitled to for distribution.  The quantity of cashew brokens and bits consumed in India determines the preferred origin of the raw material.  Origins which have smaller grades or tougher nuts to process - have more brokens and this sometimes pushes the demand for weaker origins.  India being the largest consumer of cashew has a large influence on this crooked nut.

Education, Religion and Entertainment : In a similar vein an Education Bill should also dictate distribution terms of Caju Kathili on occassions when Indias close to 500 Million children successfully pass Examinations year after year. Tirupathi and other religious boards should have determinable quotas too for Cashew bits and pieces used in Laddoos & Prasad (the religious offerings).  Entertainment Bars, Restaurants serving Cashew snacks too - If we were able to determine the above Marriage, Education, Religious and Entertainment usage of Cashew bits - we could have a much better idea on stocks and requirements in India.

Bill and Melinda Gates and the ACA & IRD : Many years after Vasco da Gama brought this crooked nut to India and Africa, the pundits in the US (through the USDA and USAID) decided to take some credit for popularising the nut.  They either genuinely believed or initially convinced Africa that India was actually exploiting Africa by taking away its raw material. The primary reason for African raw material production to have boomed from a meagre 50 Thousand Metric Tonnes to a whopping 800,000 Metric Tonnes was conveniently forgotten.  This was not becasue of a boom in local processing, and neither because of a US Department of Agriculture presence, but because of a simple boom in population, weddings and children getting through school in India!! Consumption in India has driven processing in India. Currently processors in Africa, due to the multitude of other inefficiencies, are unable to pay growers a competitive price for the raw nuts. African processors have to compete with Vietnam and India on the kernels.  Though the apparent earning of Foreign Exchange is slightly higher when a country Processes kernels and successfully exports it, it is essential to understand that unless the factory is efficient and self sustainable, they will not be able to pay the producer a better price.  Thus the NGOs step in subsidise the crop, set up a factory only to help it close once the subsidy goes.  The report presented is that that they have successfully added value to the product and they get the Kudos of the Development World.  This has a reverse action on the markets and  - to satisfy their egoes that they now add value to the product. They take away value from a farmer and give it to a processor and the nation. The Farmer feeds the nation literally!!  Processing of the Crooked nut in Africa will be a success one day - when Africa consumes its lower grades or finds a market for it. When finance and energy are available at competitive rates. When the middle class and consumers grow.Till then it will be the NGOs and AID organisations that will claim moral successes in adding value to the chains. Hypermarkets and Supermarkets will promote fairtrade only to move the value addition benefits to a few farmers, while the gross margins and national development will be at the cost of the farmer -  the Farmer of the crooked nut!

Currency Exchange: The Euro and the Dollar dance a different tune.  The Dollar and the Ruppee dance the Samba.  West African sourcing is primarily done in Euro linkd CFAs. Stronger Dollar is good for Exporters buying in Euros and Selling in US$ and this pushes raw material prices higher. A stronger Dollar is bad for Indian/Vietnamese importers of Raw Nuts and thus pushes buying prices lower.  An exporter from India likes a strong Dollar.  Thus there lies another crooked mismatch!!

Shipping : The Corporate situation of Maersk and Delmas. If AP Moeller has a change of management policy that they so often have or if Vincent Bollore sees a better opportunity in China - Freight changes affect both the raw material prices and the kernel prices as well. A change of shipping route affects the quality and thus the prices too.

Elections in Bissau : For some unfathomable reason, the governemnt of Guinea Bissau always manages to hold its Assembly, Presidential or every other Elections (or power transition event) during the peak of the Cashew Season. Thus lending a twist of uncertainity to International availability of Bissaus much sought after raw nut. A delay in shipments from Bissau normally pushes market prices up. But delayed shipments means full warehouses and thus a lowering of prices in Bissau. And overflowing warehouses means lack of Cash turnaround and thus even more lower prices.  Overflowing warehouses also indicate poor storage conditions for crop in the bush as well as in the warehouse and thus likely deterioraiton of quality - and thus even lower prices.  All while overseas prices and demand goes up... Would you buy or sell?

In fact POLITICS in Bissau too affects world prices. Several Ministers and everyone who has a say in Government also has a say in the Private sector through a Chamber. Export duties , and general relaxing of personal activities results in calm
Rice prices : Rice is a barter item for Cashews and normally is a 1 bag for 1 bag. Thus irrespective of Kernel markets, at times a shortage in rice sends the Raw nut prices sky rocketing in Bissau - and by the time the kernel market corrects itself to this anomaly, a fuddled cashew trader is stuck with overpriced stocks.

The Bangladesh Jute Weavers Association : Strangely, when these guys go on strike or go slower on deliveries, Jute bag prices double or delay shipments of the raw cshewnuts - and thus could affect our already confused cashew trader!!

The Icing to the Cake of Factors influencing this Crooked nut are the Crooked Rumour Mongers!! Twenty four phone calls a day and they successfully move markets up or down - Momentarily, no doubt - but enough to twist buying and selling of a twisted nut.  These mongers complement another distasteful breed -"One bag Speculator Buyers" - who meander into markets, buy a single bag at twice the normal price and say that they'll come back for the rest. The rumours spread that a benvolent buyer is there. The saviour has come! And all selling stops! The whole market waits days for the return of their new found benefactor.  The serious buyer goes away dejected and losing money and patience. The unsuspecting trader waits a lifetime. Markets change. The trader is desperate and sells at a loss to the partner of the One Bag speculator. This modus operandi is quite popular with fly by night operators.

The Cashew Club of Kollam : Am sure they will dispute this - but discussions held in the exclusive bar of the exclusive Cashew Club in Kollam can make paradigm shifts in kernel and raw nut trade.  A few whispers inbetween a few sips of some of the best distillates available, in any venue that members of this august club meet, cause Tsunami like reactions - waves and troughs that resemble the crooked curves of this tasty nut.

The Pundits : Not the pony-tailed, forehead striped religious types here. The experts who know how to predict the futures of this Crop. The very intellignet Gujarathi or Sindhi - new in the business but already expert types or the seasoned Malayalee or the American kernel trader - everyone knows what everyone doesnt know. And what they say doesnt mean anythng - but it changes the way the market behaves.

The West & East Africa Integration Ploicy : Traders of raw material in East Africa migrate to participate in the trading season in West Africa and Like wise Traders from West are setting up bases in East Africa - thus with this cross cultural interface - free flow of buying practices - influence the Cashew buying train around africa.

The Cashew Buying Train : India has perfected the art of year round sourcing in a unique manner.  Dec/Jan - meets the end of the East African and Indoneisian season and buyers buy local crop in India . In Feb/march they reach West Africas armpit in Nigeria, move westward to Benin/Ghana and then to the hypermarket Ivory Coast. The Gambia, Senegal and Bissua from April, May to August are the next destinations of this group of predominant Malayalee inspectors and thier mixed breed of traders/businessmen. Malayalees, Gujarathis, Karnatakaites, Andhra-ites, Maharashtrians, Tamilians, Punjabis and more recently Oriyas.... The list of trader origins is endless. The train then moves back to East Africa and Indonesia for Nov/Dec/Jan and then the cycle continues. .

Labour : Kollam, the bastion of processing for many years - now resonates with many languages. On my last trip, was surprised to hear several groups speaking bengali, marathi, oriya....labourers - migrant workers have lent another angle to processing prices. New labourers work for lesser but are inefficient at processing smaller kernels. Thus a Senegalese origin  processor loses labourers and Tanzanian origin gets cheaper abundant labourers.

Cholestrol - Good & Bad : The current fight between the Almond board and the Cashew Export Promotion Council may have winners and losers. But the presence of Cholestrol in the argument - helps keep the price of kernels fluctuating.

FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE TRADE AND PRICES IN THE FUTURE :

Does Water exist on the Moon : Put together with the fact that Malayalees are the first to migrate anywhere and if there exists water on the Moon, then we can have a corner Nair shop as well as grow cashew trees on the Moon.  This will grossly change the way Cashew business is done in the future.

China : With the speed and efectiveness Chinese are multiplying overseas (The Chinese Govt has a ban on Chinese multiplying at home - max ONE CHILD Policy - But encourages growing chinese influence overseas by either exporting citizens in bulk to virgin Africa or by turning a blind eye to the One Child policy for Overseas residents - as long as they dont inist on Chinese nationality for their overseas biologically increasing numbers) - It will be not long before Chinese will get into the Raw nut trade (NOT LONG... Infact it's begun!!! A dear friend of mine - George, is the first. I have sucessfully done some rawnut business with him) and very soon they will rush into the processing game - be it in Africa or China - and this will drastically change the ways of trade of the crooked nut.  The Chinese will devise a method to clone the Cashew with Maize and we may have kernels growing out of Cobs!

Thus on an end note, if one were able to master all the above and keep in view global weather conditions, Ash eruptions (not referring to arguments by our own bollywood belle - but the volcanic type from Iceland), Oil prices and Oil slick conditions, Halliburton stocks, Dick & Donalds whereabouts and activities, etc.etc. and then relate all this information to the Global economic situation (especially to that in Greece, Pakistan, Comoros Islands, Haiti and Spain) and then finally weigh Ahmedinejads Iran Export Policy on Pistachios, then one could easliy master the price trends of the Cashew Raw nut versus the Cashew Kernel.

Ram Mohan
In a moment of 'crooked' yet light humour
Guinea Bissau May 2010.

* Gele-gele : a 20+year old van converted to a bulk human transporter - with a minimum of 5 legs, few goats/pigs or chicken, 5 charcoal or cashew bags etc etc that need to be outside as the Gele-gele moves.(See Pic above)
NOTE : No figures and facts in the above blog are accurate. Consume them at your own risk!