Monday, June 18, 2012

Incredible Discrediting Credit Ratings of Incredible India and other follies!

Reading Fitch and Standard and Poors downgrading of Indias credit ratings, may have caused sufficient stress and worry to economists and planners. But to a layman like me, I wonder! Seriously wonder.

I announce, " I hereby am downgrading Fitch, S&P, and all those credit rating agencies.

They're Blind or Shortsighted. They're ignorant of new world situations. They couldn't see the disasters of the failure of Western economies. They never did see the emergence of a new world economic order. They didn't see the Euro crisis or the disasters of the US Wars. And they downgrade an economy that works and survives purely by itself. Just on local consumerism! Duh?

We don't deny that corruption hurts growth. That it needs to be weeded out. But India has been growing at over 5-6 and even at 8% DESPITE all these anomalies for years. The local markets are the ones that drive an Economy like India. .. If anyone has noticed, eventually our system roots out the corrupt... The Satyam scam brain is behind bars, the Mining dons, Reddy bros are in " tole" as the French would say it, a Yeddyurappa is out of office, a Lalit Modi is on the run....etc etc. Even an ex PM, the true founder of modern economics in India couldnt escape the law - having been proved corrupt, spent time in Prison - despite the fact that he did it only for the party. Thus corruption eventually surfaces in India. the guilty are punished most often. The governemnt moves on. Year after year.

S&P speaks of a silent PM,a strong Sonia and thus a government not moving leading to a downgrade of our rating. Howeverm, Wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan that cost the US exchequer more than just a couple of Billion US$ a day, never did seem to catch their attention. Yet a brief dip in an Indian economy ( while the rest of the world is reeling in dire straits), immediately triggers the alarm. "Indian growth is shrinking" . "The Indian miracle is failing" - Headlines read "S&P and Fitch downgrade Indian credit rating to Negative from Stable!!!"
Eeekkkks . Heelllp.

"Hello. I live in India. I am Indian. ..and I am unable to see this catastrophe happening" Says the average Indian, reading these critical "Doom of the Indian Boom" headlines. As I look around, the Chai kada wallah, the Vada Pav wallah, the Dabba wallah, the Panwallah, Rickshawwallah....and the several millions of Indian business "wallahs", who don't import, who don't export...
Nothing, for them seems to have changed. Certainly not for the worse.
Oh! Ofcourse, Ask them and complain they will for sure!!
Is it the end of the road for them? Is it doomsday for them? No way" they've seen worse.

And I thus think - Does India need this credit rating. I think foreign investors have been hypnotised that they need a rating to go in and invest. Do the real investors heed the ratings. Markets are what investors look for. The biggest and most vibrant market is IN INDIA. Despite S&P, despite FITCH,mdespite MOODYs' moods... those who look for markets will come.

The ones that stay away from an emerging India, could be the losers.
What if S&P stayed out of India. I would wonder that they would survive.

Our economy may dive, but will survive without a bailout. We may just need our population to take in a whiff of air. And our economy will thrive and not just survive. I don't think theirs will.

NOTE : I'm neither an economist nor an expert.... and neither am I qualified to comment on world economies and policies. However can say this- what I've said above is what I and a number of normal people around the world feel about specialists from the WB, IMF , credit rating agencies .... They're quite incapable of looking at a truly global world. The new world financial order involving India, China, Brazil and Africa will have different parameters to rate economies of the world.

4 comments:

  1. "Neega Angeeoo poiteegaa ". Well and rightly said. Iam getting Goose pimples reading this!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. excellent blog and spot on! wish sibal would ban these rating agencies...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks... They're a drain on the Economy of any poor nation!

    ReplyDelete