The Crooked Cashewnut Gets More Crooked

This is a little follow up on the first Note I wrote earlier about three years ago

http://dustbin-by-ram.blogspot.com.br/2010/05/crooked-cashewnut.html

I state with conviction that The Crooked Cashewnut has got all the more "crookeder" !! 

We had discussed a few years ago, the factors that affected the crooked nut that made the business wicked... 

We had summarized then, that in the future, cashew would grow on the Moon, the ever multiplying and growing Chinese would multiply and clone cashew... .. seemingly weird, imaginative thoughts, that among other things,  would change the way cashew business was done... And, while revisiting the crooked nut and the blog, I see that it's all falling into place... well, almost!

Almost, because there's No Cashew on the Moon as yet and No chinese cashew clones... but I can assure you that we're not very far away.  The Chinese incursion is well underway. Over a hundred Chinese business boys have overnight sprouted in Bissau aggressively buying raw cashews while the market is in recession. I imagine they're 'sinisterly' secretly breeding seedlings to clone and plant on the moon. I see my prophecies coming true. I see no other reason that the Chinese would invade Bissau for cashews in this manner while rest of the cashew world is reeling from a form of recession!!!

I thus, unrelently continue my search, trying to identify new predictable parameters that make the Cashew business wicked and un predictable. 

For a Little more clarity on LIfe in Fortaleza - Sketch by Ram

Here I am, three trying years sine I wrote the blog on Bissau, and four since the blog on the Crooked nut, sitting in beautiful Fortaleza, Brazil, typing out a new blog,  at a tiny poolside, sipping Caipirinhas and Beers, in a regular shirt and shorts..... and I am already feeling kind of nakedly over dressed. (I see more embarrassment in being fully clothed, than fully unclothed, without any offending piece of obstructive tissue.) However shall not digress into the issue of dress code here in Brazil as that deserves a whole new separate blog!! 

The Brazilians didn't make a feeble appearance in my first blog on Crooked Cashews. They are now prominent in my updated list of those factors that make the crooked nut even more crooked. I remember blurting out, once in one of my  developmental outbursts, "Brazil will be to West Africa, what India was to East Africa". The reasons, however, today are far less revealing ones.

Please do read my blog from two years ago when we first brought the Brazilians to West Africa. ( I quickly add that I refer to the modern era - thus 'brought' indicates that we invited them as commercial buyers of the crooked nut).  Little did I know that my prophecy was being in a way brought to life by me, myself!! But those days of proximity with Brazilians in Bissau does give me an insight into my life in the last 14 days.

http://dustbin-by-ram.blogspot.com.br/2011/05/bissau-diary-may-2011-bike-good-food.html

And while I call the discussion on Brazilian dress code a digression, I realize that I can see that this very dress code will change the way cashew business is conducted from West Africa in the future.  ... my friend John Rao will be able to explain the immense energy that I describe below, far better than I can, I'm sure.

Work, and my typing, moves at a snails pace, not because the Brazilian way of life is slow...but because half the time is spent in observing the fashion trends in Beach wear in Brazil that keep blurring ones vision and thoughts. I sincerely hope I am able to complete my blog before I leave Brazil.

Back to the current Blog : What new factors could affect our crooked nut

1. African Processing Industry : Africa is now apparently processing 30% of its raw nut production ( according to the ACA and ACi) and this definitely can create mixed tremors in prices... While factories n Africa clamour and use political influence to encourage governments to lower raw nut prices and ban the export of raw nuts... often trying to indict India, Vietnam and now Brazil for taking their raw material!! The development agencies play the balancing act. Indian consumption is essential to their goals, especiall since the last two years have seen decline in US and European demand for kernels. thus leaving us and everyone in terrible turmoil. Export of Raws increase prices. Local Processing drops prices. Huh. So encourage value addition and farmers lose interest? We're getting all the more confused.

2. Migration: We had earlier referred to the migration of the West African traders to East Africa. What we didnt contend for was the very concerted move by big East African giants who have invaded our sanctum sanatorium and have already introduced spin ... very quickly in their innings. Our Pundits are trying to analyse their master plan, but with the absence of ICC like technical assistance to umpires ( ICC of Cricket and NOT the hallowed Court) ..doctrines like third umpires, I doubt we will be able to figure out the effect of their Invasion,and what effects it could have on the Crooked nut business.  Huge inflow of cash, creates competition and prices move up. Over the years, the product volume grows up and markets move down. Still confused?

3. Climate Change : This is truly real and present danger!!  quite scary.. was discussed earlier too... but is getting all the more real. It's freezingly cold in Dakar , Gambia and parts of Bissau in the nights...yet terribly hot in the days. Rains are also confused.  The crop Outturns are fine, but the creeping of oily nuts will change the way nuts are sold in the region.  Were already seeing a disinterest in prime raw nuts. So is Global warming cooling the demand for cashews? Very very Wicked parameter.

4. Barack Obama and the US Immigration policy  : the champion of Peace and the flag bearer of the restructuring and re-industrialisation of the all powerful USA... While the USAID, USDA through the ACA and ACi have been promoting the Crooked Nut as a development tool in Africa, last year the reluctance of the American Industry to import anything that they can consume or produce, seems to be tempting the big markets of US ( and of course anything the US does, Europe tries) thus big buyers in US decided to reduce import of Non US products.  Thus while they promote more processing in West Africa, (Drops prices) they've reduced intake(also drops prices).
Will processing or value addition move to the Americas? Will there be more stress on local American nuts? Almonds, Pistachios, Groundnuts, Hazelnuts dont need Visas to enter the US Market.
Will the US immigration policy apply to the poor already crooked nut? This can only drop the markets, while it certainly looks good on an American development agenda on paper.

5. Samba, Brazil and Bikinis : Despite my unwillingness to digress, I will have to visit this parameter (para inch?? if one was to use a term - in a size that is comparable to the clothing benchmark in Brazil) .. as it plays an all important role in the future of Cashew nuts. For once, the crooked nuts curves,  looks good, resembling the curves on which this humble (in size), yet regal (in terms of the role it plays), piece of clothing rests on. Virtually hugging on for dear life, despite visionary attempts to make the insignificant piece of cloth let go!!

Though I have been told often, by more learned exponents and amateurs, that The Samba is not a Brazilian movement, I, and am sure all of you reading this, imagine this is very Brazilian. And for some reason, also imagine this is feminine. Yet at all the Samba performances I've seen so far are Men drumming, singing and dancing (I can visually hear John saying Im looking at the wrong places)...However, to be fair to those misconceptions,, as the music goes on, the rhythmic beat and slowly the women gyrate, different parts of their Brazilian anatomy, each moving in different directions, yet all well connected, and thus together producing some sort of ever building energy. The energy buid up motivates the drummers and the onlookers in a strange way. In a complex sort of chain reaction, all this energy radiates and increases in disproportional magnitude.

And this energy, is what will affect decisions made by people in the cashew business in the future. I see this energy attracting all the cashew processors and traders alike, in the future, with some sort of magnetism, making businessmen taking decisions that will continue to confound the pundits ...Two years ago when we started this trend, none of us could figure out the market... we tried all permutations and combinations , to look at parity. India market versus Brazilian market.. We just couldnt figure out how Brazil was able defeat all newtonian principles, defying gravity and parity with aplomb.

Now, a couple years wiser, I figure out that this B-Energy (a confluence of The Samba and Bikinis moving in a figure of eightish rhythymic gyromechanical yet fluid motion..) will change the way automobiles, aeroplanes and spaceships are powered in the future.
For the moment, the crooked cashewnut business will get all the more wicked with Malayalees, the Nairs and the Pillais and the newer Shahs of the Nutty business will flock to experience this energy, thus pushing up local value for the nuts... However this could also see the drop in price of African seed caused by the exodus from Africa!! Very Crooked & Very Wicked!

6. Cloned Cashew in Outerspace : I must once again bring up the possibilities of Cashew on the moon and this becomes a reality as Sir Richard Branson and many more make Space travel accessible.. Space and moonstations are just around the corner. This is what we know from our American space programs, (some of this via Wikileaks.) The Chinese, Russians, North Koreans, Japanese have silently been launching spaceships and will lead the way for sure. According to the US, the Chinese are constantly spying and improving on stolen US  technologies. And if the way the USAID and USDA are promoting Cashew, I see Cashew on the Moon or other planets much sooner than expected, and all the more likely a cloned, Chinese variety. 

7. The Indian Governments Africa Policy Versus the Chinese Governments Chinese Policies :
Two points to ponder before stepping into this quagmire
1. Indian Business Presence in Africa was principally by its private citizens
2. The Chinese presence in African Business is State encouraged

The Indian Governemnt, unlike the Chinese, like to look at long term participatory Investment projects and this seemingly, hasn't been very successful -  By the time the Indian Govt gets through its red tapism and corruption prevention policies (that quite probably open new avenues for corrupt practices), the Chinese have come, seen, conquered, multiplied and have left...albeit having taken what they came for and leaving behind a few structures with diminishing character.. and a multitude of chinese characters, with heavy multiplying potential.

Cashew that used to be an Indian domain, is now more American and will soon be Chinese, more than ever before. Thanks to the Indian Governments Africa Policy.

The Chinese gift Africa ten times the money India loans. The Chinese, thus very cleverly, kill two or many more birds (three, four or even five), with one stone.

Bird 1: They despatch a multitude of Chinese people to employ with their overseas projects. Chinese employment figures have been up since they commenced helping Africa.

Bird 2: The second bird the Chinese manage to so effectively eliminate is their population growth. By exporting a multitude of Chinese labourers to Africa, the Chinese curb their indigenous population growth.

Bird 3: World Acceptance : The Chinese thus impress World and UN Agencies with their effective population control and employment growth figures, bringing into the club of acceptable countries that have democratic norms and achieve goals set by Western Institutions.

Bird 4: Africas Raw Materials - China benefits with now easy access to most of Africas Raw Materials

Bird 5: African Union Votes at the UN or World Platforms to gain China a makeover from the Dictatorial like image of the past to one of the saviour of the world.

Stone 1: Chinese Aid to Africa. With a few Billion US Dollars of Aid to Africa, the above Birds are 'killed' by China, before India has an iota of a chance to step in.

They have successfully mastered the art of win win development. They win in every way.
Without even having to speak English!!

While you wonder, what does this all have to do with Cashew, I must admit I have digressed with Nationalist fervor.!! The point I want to make is that had India, some 10 to 40 or even 100 years ago, having been solely responsible for the boom in Raw Cashew growth in Africa, invested in growing the valude addition industry then, in Africa, we wouldn't have had such a crooked or wicked nut to deal with today.

I dont know where this blog is heading right now.

As we stand today (I sit sipping my 3rd beer after some Caipirinhas or the other way around), there still seems no logic in the market trend of the crooked kernel. Affected by a multitude of parameters, that keep multiplying, only experience will help us navigate through the maze of permutations and combinations to understand the trade.

I joke with Krishnan, a friend, a buyer, a poet, a philosopher and an idealist... I would also say spiritualist (referring to our high calorific spiritual common interest), and also must highlight his contributions here. It was he who conjured up the term SEGABI and also, more importantly  "The Crooked Nut.....whose shape makes the business wicked", the very phrase that got me writing this blog. 

Is there rhyme, is there reason .. will the crooked nut ever have straightforward business sense.

Krishnan sees very little hope. I, however, am a firm believer his adage is what makes all of us continue to keep rallying around this Crooked nut.. constantly pondering.. each season, with its variances, like a Chess game... Looking for solutions. Do we have a solution? Do we know the answers... or as Krishnan poetically wishes,

a vision,
a Crystal Ball,
that with some precision
will tell us all.

While he continues to imagine magical solutions to queries on the Crooked Nuts wickedness, I'll take my fingers off the keyboard, take another sip of another  Caipirinha, observe the more recent trends in Brazilian fashion... and continue to dream up solutions.

Ram

Fortaleza

In a very Spirited un spiritual mood